Malefix

MaLeFiX - Machine Learning aided ForecastIng of drought related eXtremes

In the past decades, the earth’s average air temperature has risen considerably, and the global climate is predicted to change continuously over this century and beyond. The evaluated temperature will lead to more frequent and intense extreme events in the near future. In many mountainous parts of Europe, glaciers are a reliable water resource for summer discharge. However, we couldn’t rely on these relief measures in the long run because glaciers are melting at an accelerating rate. Most climate scenarios suggest, by the end of this century, we will face a situation that all glaciers in the European alps disappear.
The frequency of occurrences of heat waves and severe droughts will increase as the direct consequences of climate change. For example, people may still remember, in the year 2018, Switzerland experienced one of the most droughts of the recent decade. The lack of water led to severe crop failures and early discoloration of leaves on many common plant species. In addition to this, the water temperature of rivers reached a critical threshold for some aquatic species. As you can see, the occurrence of extreme weather events is posing a non-negligible threat to the biodiversity of our land.
One of the reasons that extreme temperature events and droughts have such a huge impact on species’ fitness and survival is because the fundamental niche of a species is shaped by a variety of environmental conditions. Ectotherms, including fish and amphibians, which make up more than 90 percent of all animals, are particularly vulnerable to climate warming. Their basic physiological functions of ectotherms like locomotion, growth and reproduction are strongly affected by ambient temperature, exposure to extreme temperature in habits can critically impact the fitness and even the death of animals. Unlike ectotherms, most endotherms are able to maintain a constant body temperature. But if the environmental temperature falls below or rises about an endotherm’s thermoneutral zone (TNZ), it has to adjust its metabolic rate or increase evaporative cooling, which harms its fitness over a prolonged period.