Broadening the scope of future visions for nature positive futures
Research investigating the impact of future change scenarios on the state of external pageBES indicators tends to exhibit a dichotomy between approaches. On the one hand, much research focuses on quantitative modeling of socio-environmental phenomena utilizing very little qualitative input from stakeholders. Alternatively, other research focuses primarily on participatory scenario construction but does not operationalize the results in simulation modeling. Thus, the combination of quantitative and qualitiative approaches has been described as one of the grand challenges of socio-ecoloical systems modelling. In addition, it has been noted that the dominant narratives within scenario modelling tend towards dystopian outcomes for BES and that more positive scenarios are required in order to empower stakeholders.
This project thus combines quantitative and qualitative approaches to downscale the scenario narratives proposed by the external pageSwiss Re Institute and simulate the impacts of the scenarios on the state of BES indicators between 2020 and 2050. The methodology will build upon that of an ongoing project with similar aims, external pageValPar.CH, a large trans- and interdisciplinary process in Switzerland, assessing future changes in BES until 2060. The participatory modeling workflow developed in ValPar.CH includes all elements of the IPBES framework, quantifying and valuing changes in BES in a spatially explicit manner under normative and explorative scenarios. The current application of the workflow to Switzerland considers 9 Nature's Contributions to People (NCPs) across the IPBES categories. In this project, we aim to demonstrate the utility and transferability of this workflow by applying it to a novel context in Peru, focusing on BES indicators within the agriculture and forestry domain.
The fact that we utilize two case studies in very different contexts exemplifies the utility as well as the challenges of the approach, thereby contributing to the state of the art. In addition, the fact that the scenarios devised explicitly combine both normative and exploratory elements through the Nature Futures Framework (NFF) addresses the need for more examples of positive future scenarios research.
This project is a joint effort between the following research groups:
